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Reflation

Best Blogs of the Week #251

Posted by Anu Heda on Nov 21, 2016, in Best Blogs of the Week , tagged with , ,

Favorite post of the week covers reflation (Act of stimulating the economy by increasing the money supply or by reducing taxes, seeking to bring the economy back up to the long-term trend, following a dip in the business cycle. It is the opposite of disinflation, which seeks to return the economy back down to the long-term trend.) . Less than two weeks since the election and most industry blog posts continue to describe potential changes and situations across regions and asset classes. I tend to like posts with a clear viewpoint on 1 – 2 issues.

BlackRock – Welcome to the new world of reflation – Besides the impact of aggressive fiscal stimulus that President-elect Trump has proposed, inflation expectations are rising on the back of fundamental developments that preceded the election.

BlackRock – What a Trump presidency could mean for bond markets long term – We see a potential headwind for municipal bonds.

Franklin Templeton – A Fresh Look at DOL and Retirement Issues Under Trump – Trump has a very limited, if any, agenda on retirement issues that we can determine. His advisors have been quoted as calling for the repeal of the DOL fiduciary rule, but his populist rhetoric has been largely adversarial toward Wall Street.

Wells Fargo – The investment landscape after the election – After a brief hiccup, I think the market has it right: Trump will be pro-growth. This should be good for stocks and not good for high-quality bonds.

 

Best Blogs of the Week #250

Posted by Anu Heda on Nov 14, 2016, in Best Blogs of the Week , tagged with , , ,

POTUS 45. There’s not much for me to say that hasn’t been written all over the Internet. From reading 50+ blog posts related to the election, I can affirm asset managers tread lightly with opinion. Asset managers are more comfortable with sharing the news. With that in mind, four excellent posts.POTUS

Loomis Sayles – A Trump White House: Potential Market Impacts of the US Election – Trump’s proposals are structurally inflationary, but which measures will get passed and implemented is a large unknown.

M&G – President-elect Trump. 5 predictions on what happens next in the global economy and markets – Trump may not build a wall. But even if he does, it won’t keep the robots out.

Putnam – What we might expect with a Trump administration agenda – Trump does not have any specific plans to change Social Security or Medicare. He opposes any increase in the retirement age and would oppose raising the wage base for the Social Security payroll tax.

Russell – U.S. elections 2016: Trump wins White House. Markets react. – So we don’t see this election as having a lasting impact on markets.

Best Blogs of the Week #249

Posted by Anu Heda on Nov 07, 2016, in Best Blogs of the Week , tagged with , ,

Power. A President’s power on the global markets. As we’re one day from selecting (please let there not be a tie) the 45th POTUS, it’s a topic that is on many American minds. The Loomis Sayles post shares market impacts directly tied to Presidential power.

BlackRock – Are International Markets Back? – Very slowly, almost stealthily, international equity markets are clawing back relative to the United States. On a dollar-adjusted basis Japanese stock returns are now on par with the United States, with both the S&P 500 and the Nikkei 225 up around 4.5% year-to-date.

President and price to earnings since 1954

Loomis Sayles – Presidential Power: Are We At Risk for a Trade War? – The president has enormous powers to tear up trade agreements and, in many cases, to impose tariff penalties to advance US interests as interpreted by the president.

SSgA – It’s About Time: Using ‘Satisficing’ to Help Clients Make Better, More Efficient Decisions – For all investors, “satisficing” can be the foundation of a more structured process around investment decisions. Satisficing—which combines satisfying and sufficing, and was coined by behavioral economist Herbert Simon—is a way to manage uncertainties in the decision-making process, to stay focused on goals and to avoid being overwhelmed by unlimited information.

 

Gaudi!

Best Blogs of the Week #248

Posted by Anu Heda on Oct 31, 2016, in Best Blogs of the Week , tagged with , , ,

1 election post. That is all I will bring you. Promise. Overall here are the four most engaging posts from the last three weeks.

Columbia Threedneedle – Election 2016: Lifting the cloud of uncertainty – Changes to tax policies are likely regardless of who wins in November. But it’s questionable how much change can actually be effected considering an expected divided government even if Trump wins.

DistributionsJPMorgan – Fatter tails and endogenous risk – Although endogenous risks are difficult to quantify, there are ways to recognize and mitigate them. Analysis of flow data and correlation can provide insight into crowding and cross asset dynamics.  Stress testing can help quantify potential tail losses, and hedging via non-linear products such as options can help protect against the risks.

Loomis Sayles – Global Growth Themes and Forecast (Infographic) – We’re in a “lower for longer” bond yield environment as inflation in advanced economies decelerates and major central banks—the Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan—pursue quantitative easing (QE).

Vanguard – Good grief! They’re commoditizing index investing again – While it may be tempting to think that the same application of technology can displace the human element of running an index fund, we have not seen that disruption and probably never will. Indeed, people remain one of the most critical differences across providers.

 

Is Originality Important When it Comes to Content?

Posted by Mike McLaughlin on Oct 18, 2016, in Thoughts , tagged with , ,

Three semi-quick steps to get to my answer…

1. I tweet very infrequently.

2. The reasons I don’t tweet are multiple and common. But one of them is relevant to the question at hand: I don’t want to say something or make an observation that has already been made thousands of times before.

Case in point: my tolerance for spicy food has grown with age. So, as part of a recent Thai food order I upped the spiciness. Before the food arrived I started to wonder how I’d react to it. My thought process quickly went:

spicy-flow-chart

At this point I had a few version of a “spicy / Ark of the Covenant” tweet in my head. Still, as I considered putting it out there one thought popped into my head: has somebody said this before?

3. I assumed the answer to my question was YES, but a quick search showed that instinct to be mostly incorrect. It’s only appeared a handful of times over the years (at least on Twitter). Even so, my hesitation got the best of me and the world was deprived of another tweet.

spicy-tweet

All of this made me wonder about the importance of content originality within asset management. And in a nutshell I came to conclusion that it’s just not very important at all. The most direct illustration I can point to is the defense of active management. Consider that:

  • The current environment has led many, many, many, many firms to communicate a case for actively-managed investments.
  • These cases overlap significantly, making highly-similar points.

Despite the ubiquity and similarity we have been working with a client this month on how to message active management. And I think our client is absolutely right to pursue this effort. Why? First, it boils down to a numbers game:

  • Asset management is fractured, in that there are large numbers of providers and a huge number of clients.
  • This leads to kinetic content consumption. The likelihood of any given client encountering and consuming a single piece of content from an asset manager is low. The likelihood that they will consume content on the same subject from multiple managers is even lower. In other words, content sameness has a limited chance of being noticed.

Second, multiple perspectives are sought out by thoughtful clients. So, even if someone encounters the same ideas from multiple firms, minor nuances can stand out and be memorable.

And finally, going down heavily-traveled content roads is necessary because clients expect a firm to have something to say. For example, what active manager can afford NOT to have a strong case for active management in today’s climate? Ditto meaningful topics like Brexit, the Fed’s plans for rates, and more.

In an era where firms compete not only on product and performance but on the scale and quality of their ideas, covering the most important ideas and topics is crucial while pure originality is simply a nice-to-have.