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What Happens When Big Ideas are Worth Less?

Consider a hypothetical industry:

  1. Competition is intensifying.
  2. Organizations are investing heavily in analytical capabilities, both in terms of people and tools, in an attempt to find a new strategy that will give them an edge.
  3. Unfortunately for the innovators, new ideas and strategies are often quickly digested and leveraged by numerous competitors.

I happen to be talking about baseball, an industry so competitive these days that someone was just sent to prison for 4 years for hacking another team’s data. (Yes, with Spring Training starting I have a little too much baseball on my mind).

But the competitive realities in baseball – and their implications – parallel what is happening in asset management. Competition is rising. Firms continue to search for new business and distribution strategies in part by utilizing Big Data. And the window for firms to capitalize on new ideas is increasingly short.

Smart beta provides a good example. Though the ideas have been around for a long time, for the most part firms did not perceive smart beta as a major opportunity until the last few years. Then, rapidly, there was a pivot. In short order the idea that smart beta is not just a niche but a potential core strategic effort for many firms took hold. Today it’s to the point where there are 800+ smart beta ETFs and mild concerns about it being a “market fad run amok.”

Smart Beta Assets

What does this mean for firms? What if your next new idea can be understood and cloned/tweaked by the competition almost immediately?

I think the first obvious step is simple acceptance that this will be reality moving forward. In the parallel baseball universe one writer called this “the devaluation of new ideas.” Firms need to accept that their big ideas are going to get out there faster than they’d like.

The second step is more critical. It involves firms placing a greater emphasis on execution over strategy. Coming up with the idea first matters less; implementing the idea as creatively, uniquely, and efficiently as possible becomes paramount.

While this is somewhat of a broad, abstract concept, I find the notion interesting in light of the varied effort we see invested in strategy definition and innovation across our clients. A shift in an organization or team’s fundamental mindset can have an important impact on approaches to everything from product development to distribution tactics.

Best Blogs of the Week #261

Quality posts from the last two weeks, led by a captivating post on trade wars.

Aberdeen – Week in review: The return of inflation – Inflation is back. Figures released this week on both sides of the Atlantic painted a picture of rising prices – and the possibility of an end to the days of ultra-low price increases. The UK’s consumer prices index was 1.8% in January – its highest level since June 2014.

BlackRock Will tax reform hurt tax-exempt bonds? – By our estimates, the market might need to offer some 15 basis points (front end) to 50 basis points (long end) in higher yield to compensate for the reduced tax benefit.

William Blair – Trade Wars: Is Trump Bluffing? – The key is he put a lot of things forward. It creates uncertainty for trade and we don’t know how far he’ll push the actual negotiations, especially with respect to China. This uncertainty will need to be considered when building a portfolio.

Trade Star Wars

massive

ETF Issuers and the Missed Education Opportunity

In January, Ignites published a piece titled “AQR Second to Vanguard in Active Flows” (subscription required). The primary points orbit active fund flows. What caught my eye was a link to 2016 passive and active fund flows from Morningstar. From their data, only 6% of passive ETF fund flows ($31.5B) went to issuers outside the top five (Vanguard, BlackRock, SSgA, Fidelity, and DFA). That means 120 ETF issuers split $31.5B (issuer list via etfdb). Seems like a massive issuer group sharing a small slice of the ETF flow pie. What types of products do these issuers provide?

To learn more, I sifted through issuer lists and AUM data. Many of the issuers offer leveraged or inverse ETFs (Direxion, ProFunds) while others have thematic ETFs (GlobalX, VelocityShares). To focus my research, I searched for ETFs with investment strategies classified as “alternatives.” Here’s a list of the top 25 alternatives ETFs (image to the right). Only one comes from BlackRock, SSgA, or Vanguard (it’s from SSgA). To support alternative products, issuers need to educate prospective buyers. That’s basic communication strategy. massiveSo, I studied the Web sites of the four firms with the 5 largest alternative ETFs: 2 from IndexIQ (now part of New York Life by way of MainStay), WisdomTree, First Trust, and Hull Capital. None of them highlight education on their homepages or product profiles. Rather, they model their sites off of traditional active managers with promotions of thought leadership (2017 Outlook, anyone?), product, and firm.

I think that’s a massive mistake. Focus on education by answering: what’s an alternative ETF? why should you care? how does it precisely fit into an asset allocation plan?

 

Best Blogs of the Week #260

Quality posts this week, led by a captivating post comparing this administration to the start of Reagan’s.

Franklin TempletonThe Sectors Most Likely to Cheer US Tax Reform – It’s always tough to gauge the impact of policy shifts in isolation. However, we think broad tax reform combined with other fiscal stimulus measures, such as infrastructure spending and repatriation of foreign profits, could be very effective (at least in the short term) in providing a boost or acceleration in gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the next several years.

MainstayReagan vs Trump: Parallels, Implications, and Results – In 1981, U.S. inflation was just starting to decline from peak levels near 15%, as the Fed lifted rates above 20% to choke off inflation. An elevated unemployment rate in 1981, at 7.8%, with baby boomers still entering the workforce, meant there was considerable scope for workers to return to or enter the job market, once inflation was arrested and broader economic conditions improved. It also meant there was pent-up demand for credit. By contrast, inflation is now inching up from below 2%

PrincipalQuestions around financial regulation changes – For all of the fighting around Dodd-Frank, it’s one of the primary reasons the U.S. banking sector was able to right itself so quickly after the 2008 financial crisis.

Reagan: Is it morning again?

via Mainstay

 

Best Blogs of the Week #259

It’s been a memorable first week into the new US administration and the industry’s bloggers kept up, to a degree. This week we highlight a clear take on the administration’s rhetoric as well as multi-factor investing (smart beta).

MainstayIs the Tide Turning on the Dollar? – In President Trump’s inaugural address, he stated that “protection will lead to great prosperity.” The U.S. dollar, subsequently, fell.

SSgA3 Charts on Recent Smart Beta Trends – We continue to believe that value stocks will be the best performing factor over the subsequent year driven by their attractive valuation relative to history.

Memorable Performance Data - 2016